2024 Metaculus - If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.

 
Metaculus Scoring System. Note: This page is about the obsolete Metaculus Points. In November 2023, we switched to using Baseline and Peer scores, but this page …. Metaculus

But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later.Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .Summary. To summarize, i would guesstimate that it will take between ~0 to 4 years from a weak AGI to superintelligence. It's reasonable to assume that after the first announcement of a weak AGI, humanity will have at most 4 years to prevent the birth of a rogue superintelligence. — edited by tryingToPredictFuture.About. https://github.com/casens5. Experience. Metaculus. 2 years. Frontend Developer. Jan 2023 - Present 1 year 3 months. Santa Monica, California, United …Mar 29, 2018 · While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition. Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.Metaculus Pro Forecasters will predict each metric alongside the crowd. A grant from the Future Fund makes this project possible, and is greatly appreciated. Our thanks also to the forecasting community for contributing to a greater understanding of humanity's near- and long-term future.McBride declined to say how much Iridium is paying Relativity per launch, but she said Iridium got a “good price” that was lower then Relativity’s advertised launch price of $12 million per Terran 1 mission. The max advertised payload for the Terran 1 is 1,250 kg to LEO; the list price of $12m per launch gives …Here's a plot of the Metaculus Strong AGI predictions over time (code by Rylan Schaeffer). The x-axis is the data of the prediction, the y-axis is the predicted year of strong AGI at the time. The blue line is a linear fit. The red dashed line is a y = x line. The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact, 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...The tournament starts on 14th of December 2020, and ends approximately in June 2021, though different rounds will start and end at different dates and are subject to change. Participants are not permitted to participate on other platforms that are running the same questions, such as Hypermind. Metaculus will decide the final …9 10. Probability distribution of the Metaculus community prediction of the implied doubling-time (in number of days) is over the period from 20th of Jan till to the last … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …Oct 24, 2021 · Generally speaking, Diophantine equations of lower degree are easier to solve than ones of higher degree. Diophantine equations of degree 1 in n variables are of the form a_0 + a_1 X_1 + a_2 X_2 + \ldots + a_n X_n = 0 for some n with the a_i all integers. It turns out these equations can be completely solved using the Extended Euclidean ... We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a …While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition.We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co …In the AI Progress Essay Contest, we open the floor for investigations of predictions regarding the future of AI, especially as it relates to the prospects, timing and impacts of potentially transformative advanced AI systems. Our aim is for systematic thinkers to engage with the wealth of AI forecasts that Metaculus has built up over the years.9 10. Probability distribution of the Metaculus community prediction of the implied doubling-time (in number of days) is over the period from 20th of Jan till to the last …Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest noteWhile Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition.The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact,The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it. In October …About. https://github.com/casens5. Experience. Metaculus. 2 years. Frontend Developer. Jan 2023 - Present 1 year 3 months. Santa Monica, California, United …Metaculus Journal The Doomsday Clock , which holds at 100 seconds to midnight as of today, suggests the world has never been closer to a catastrophe involving nuclear weapons. But another advocacy group has said it’s “only a matter of time” until some of the world’s most powerful countries agree to make them illegal.Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories.While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition.AGI Outcomes. Questions about the long-term outcomes for humanity with the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) over the next century. Looking for another lens? See the future of AI according to Metaculus.How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …May 24, 2022 · To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ... Summary. To summarize, i would guesstimate that it will take between ~0 to 4 years from a weak AGI to superintelligence. It's reasonable to assume that after the first announcement of a weak AGI, humanity will have at most 4 years to prevent the birth of a rogue superintelligence. — edited by tryingToPredictFuture.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing and the lack of ... That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool! Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this …About. https://github.com/casens5. Experience. Metaculus. 2 years. Frontend Developer. Jan 2023 - Present 1 year 3 months. Santa Monica, California, United …The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S. election! We solicited probabilistic predictions about risks to the U.S. general election on 3 November 2020, …AGI Outcomes. Questions about the long-term outcomes for humanity with the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) over the next century. Looking for another lens? See the future of AI according to Metaculus.The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can ...This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point within 3 years after the beginning of the invasion, the entire main island of Taiwan is under de facto control of the People's Republic of China. For the purposes of this question, China will be considered to "launch a full-scale invasion" if the event is described as such by both The New …Metaculus Pro Forecasters will predict each metric alongside the crowd. A grant from the Future Fund makes this project possible, and is greatly appreciated. Our thanks also to the forecasting community for contributing to a greater understanding of humanity's near- and long-term future.Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. …Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core …Today we're excited to launch a new question type on Metaculus: Multiple choice questions. Multiple choice questions are designed for topics where exactly one option out of many will occur, like the winner of a presidential election. For this question type, the sum of the probabilities across all options must equal 100% to be a valid forecast.This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. The relevant question has the following resolution criteria: For these purposes we will thus define "an artificial general …Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ... Metaculus Journal James M. Acton holds the Jessica T. Matthews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Last March, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was faltering and President Vladimir Putin was issuing nuclear threats, I tweeted my skepticism of efforts to estimate ...Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and prediction markets, where users can propose, vote, and comment on various topics. Learn how to use Metaculus's …AI Forecasts. Forgot Password? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective … 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth in G7 countries in the respective years, according to Our World In Data. For example, for 2020 this weighted average was 80.3 (whereas the unweighted average was 81.5). The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, …Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...Uc clermont, Boujee lodge, Clayground studio, The ave live, Harvard division of continuing education, Where is t mobile park, Oasis sf, Walmart webb city mo, Waste connections of colorado, Lowes harper woods, Hilliard funeral home, Fleet farm oshkosh wi, Columbia county humane society, Nabil's

The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.. Zenitbank

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Nov 2, 2016 · Laughlin said the ideal Metaculus member is a well informed “science nerd” who has a passion for discovery and a desire to learn. “President Obama is kind of our target audience,” Laughlin noted. The emphasis on science and technology is what separates Metaculus from other crowd-sourced prediction sites, Laughlin added. In this essay contest, we open the floor for investigations of long-term nuclear risks and what might be done to reduce them. As of November 12, 2021, through the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament and Nuclear Risk Horizons Project, 151 Metaculus users have provided a total of 3503 forecasts on 113 questions.The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...Oct 24, 2021 · Generally speaking, Diophantine equations of lower degree are easier to solve than ones of higher degree. Diophantine equations of degree 1 in n variables are of the form a_0 + a_1 X_1 + a_2 X_2 + \ldots + a_n X_n = 0 for some n with the a_i all integers. It turns out these equations can be completely solved using the Extended Euclidean ... On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis …Jun 13, 2011 · 2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ... NBC News: The RNC is weighing a resolution to declare Trump its 'presumptive' nominee. The Republican National Committee could move next week to declare former President Donald Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee” for the party’s presidential nomination. A draft resolution anointing Trump and obtained by NBC …Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If this has not happened before January 1, 2050, this ...A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions.For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...The Metaculus community expects this to happen in the USA sometime in early 2022, probably January, February, or March (median: 10 February). Given the Metaculus community's expected % per-day growth rate of Omicron and how long it has taken for previous variants to take off, I largely agree …Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core …This will resolve on the basis of the mean R0 that is estimated for the Omicron variant according to the first credible systematic review that estimates this value. Such a systematic review should be peer-reviewed and should incorporate R0 estimates from at least 3 studies. An example is the systematic review by Liu and …The tournament starts on 14th of December 2020, and ends approximately in June 2021, though different rounds will start and end at different dates and are subject to change. Participants are not permitted to participate on other platforms that are running the same questions, such as Hypermind. Metaculus will decide the final …We can start with estimated global annual spending on computer hardware, which is roughly $1 trillion, and growing at a rate of about 3-4% annually ( Statistica ). A common estimate of compute capacity is about 3 years worth of this spending - roughly $3 trillion. For comparison, world GDP is ~$90 trillion and growing at ~3% annually.Dumbledores_Army. commented on May 10, 2022, 2:56 AM. The latest date this could resolve is 2150, ie someone born in the year 2000 lives to the age of 150. I don't want to bet against a hundred and thirty years of technology. For comparison, life expectancy in the UK has gone from 45.8 in 1890 to 81.1 in 2020.The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...The most recent Metaculus average of 1,170 forecasters is that “the first weakly general AI system will be devised, tested and publicly announced” in …Metaculus Journal James M. Acton holds the Jessica T. Matthews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Last March, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was faltering and President Vladimir Putin was issuing nuclear threats, I tweeted my skepticism of efforts to estimate ...Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth in G7 countries in the respective years, according to Our World In Data. For example, for 2020 this weighted average was 80.3 (whereas the unweighted average was 81.5). The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, … Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories. Mar 3, 2023 · The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest note Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... Jun 24, 2023, 7:21 AM. There are several scenarios, this is why I update my previous prediction from 85% to 65% and not further down - This might not be an outright coup attempt - The coup might fail (most coups do) - Even if it is somewhat successful, Putin might remain president of Russia or of part of Russia. 3.For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info. 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... Metaculus and MQL5 had the highest errors on these forecasts. Time Is Of The Essence. For a majority of the indicators, excluding GDP and Retail Sales, Metaculus provided forecasts an average of 36 days before competitors. A regression analysis did not reveal a statistically significant relationship between …We can start with estimated global annual spending on computer hardware, which is roughly $1 trillion, and growing at a rate of about 3-4% annually ( Statistica ). A common estimate of compute capacity is about 3 years worth of this spending - roughly $3 trillion. For comparison, world GDP is ~$90 trillion and growing at ~3% annually.Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so …This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Prediction markets. Manifold Market seems to think, that there is an 62% chance that GPT-5 will come out before 2025. Similarly, Metaculus puts the announcement date of GPT-5 to Sept 2024: [2] So it seems like the forecasting sites expect a strong deviation from the historical trend. Note, that if GPT-5 takes as long as GPT-4 did, we …The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool! Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this … Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can ...If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school. The first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and prediction markets, where users can propose, vote, and comment on various topics. Learn how to use Metaculus's …Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. 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